A Fuzzy Analitic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) Application for a Renewable Selection in Azerbaijan

Abstract

Azerbaijan is an energy-independent country and oil and gas resources are the driving forces for the country economy. But heavy reliance on hydrocarbons has two serious implications: traditional energy systems are environmentally harmful; all non-renewable resources have a limited life cycle of production. In such circumstances, the development of renewables-based energy systems is of interest for Azerbaijan as well. Geographical features of the country provide a list of the country-level available renewables: solar, wind and hydro resources. Renewables selection is a multicriteria decision-making process and requires a comprehensive study of the social, economic, technological and other specific aspects of renewable development. Like any other unique undertakings and innovation, it is characterized by insufficient information, uncertainties and intangibles, competitive priorities and contradictory decisions. The necessity to rely on experts` opinion also contributes to the subjectivity and vagueness of decision-making problem. Taking into consideration these circumstances, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process has been used. According to the research results, available renewables are ordered, in accordance with priority, as following: solar ? wind ? hydro. A high priority for the solar resource presumably related to its availability almost all around the country, technical solutions affordability and relatively low per unit cost. The hydro has limited geographical availability, relatively high investment cost and some negative implications for nature. The wind is in the intermediate position.