Application of Dempster-Shaffer Theory to Study the Student Performance in Post Graduate Examinations

Abstract

Dempster- Shafer theory is a radically different kind of theory when it comes to probabilistic systems. It proposes a  system where in the outcome of an experiment can be studied or determined depending on the extent of belief in the system. Instead of assigning probabilities to outcomes, their occurrence is measured with the extent of belief one has got regarding it. The belief extents from different sources can be combined together to assign a probabilistic occurrence, indicated by the belief in that outcome    .

In the current study, the post graduate entrance examination scenario is studied. Here, the students entering into the post graduate courses are expected to possess certain high end skills like analytical skills, mathematical skills and so on. The students who take the test may not possess these skills to the required extent. In the current study a correlation has been found between the qualifying degree marks and entrance test marks and also the pattern in which the students answer the question paper. Dempster Shafer theory can be used as a framework to understand the patterns that exist in the answering of the students. This is done in two phases consisting of two different data sets of the student marks of different examinations. This work is further used as an input to build a decision support system, where in , based upon the classification  and their results, the questions in the question paper get revised.